Rylie Morgan's Saturday Ascot Preview
Race 1 AMELIA PARK PLATE 1000m
Selections: 8 – 1 – 4 – 10
Plenty of interest in the first with the debut of Auspicious for SJ Miller. 400m jump out winner by over 16L running sub 24 secs on a rain affected track back in September (beating home Brave Halo in that trial), before going to Lark Hill on the 23rd Jan and effortlessly bolting in over the 950m in very slick time. There does look to be some speed drawn underneath her, but they are going to need to be very quick early to hold her out from getting across them here. Been very excited to see her get to the races and think if she can get across into a prominent position on speed from the gate, she can be winning on debut.
Odinaka was a horror watch on debut when the best last placing you will ever see. Just hit brick wall after brick wall in the straight and was absolutely bolting, would have won that race with any daylight. Back to the 1000m here an obvious query given the lack of early speed he has shown in his career to date, could run into some more traffic issues from his inside draw.
If I Din Havadime was very good behind subsequent winner A Lot Of Good Men who you’d think would be in the top couple of seeds for the Magic Millions. Sticky draw, penalised 1.5kgs for the senior jumping aboard for the apprentice (has Holly Watson hopped off for the stablemate on debut perhaps?) but that last start effort has held up as a form reference and was a career best effort by her.
Celestial Fox has had a couple of really nice 400m jump-outs for a gun 2yo yard and Holly Watson you’d think would have been offered the pick of the rides for Dion Luciani and has opted for her.
Suggested Bet: Auspicious to win.
Race 2 TABTOUCH - WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES HCP HT 2 1200m
Selections: 1 – 9 – 4 – 8
Said it before on numerous occasions, but this just has to be the race for Ain’t No Other Man. Was a huge effort the last time we saw him in a 72+ over the 1200m. Covered extra ground throughout in a race where they went almost 9L faster than average and was super the way he fought on late into 3rd behind Warm N Fuzzy and beaten only 1L subsequent Breeders Classic winner and Challenge Stakes favourite All The King’s Men. Drops a mile back in grade from a 72+ to a Westspeed, drawn for a soft run throughout in a race with an abundance of genuine speed influences which will ensure a cracking tempo throughout, Kesh gets his chance to towball the speed here and give him the right run to win one of these races. Now or never.
With all the speed influences engaged here, think Cable Boy can be a big improver. Will get back from the draw but thought last start he just copped a check early and was never given a chance to get into that race. This sort of race shape is much more up his alley and a much improved performance wouldn’t surprise, stable is flying and McGruddy is a big part of the reason why too.
Born To Talk grows a leg off the 7 day back-up and is much better suited out to 1200m here from a draw where he can tag the speed.
War Hymn will pinch one of these soon, just tends to find one or two better. Really like the map for her here and the run she looks to get in transit with a smother.
Suggested Bet: Ain’t No Other Man is very due, but also hates having his photo taken. Goes on top, but no great interest.
Race 3 TABTOUCH - HAVE YOU GOT THE TOUCH HANDICAP 1400m
Selections: 7* – 5 – 3 – 2
Keen to follow the obvious form reference into this race in the Breeders Classic for the 3yos, and the best run from the non-winners of that race in Planet Cash. He was absolutely huge there at Pinjarra, shuffled back in a competitive field, zigged and zagged looking for a run absolutely bolting until passing the 100m, the bird had flown but when Lucy got him around heels he absolutely savaged the line, I think you could mount a genuine case if he saw clear air earlier he might have even won that race, in all seriousness. Finds a much weaker race here where he can post up in the first 6 from a soft draw, seems to really go for Lucy Warwick and if she can keep them in her sights which she should be able to in the small field, confident he can round these up.
Fly Away Home looks a big improver out to 1400m and comes through a strong race 1st up at 1200m but just looks a very awkward map for him from the widest gate. Thought he looked the main danger with luck in running.
Rebelzone a horse I have been following all prep but gets here a month between runs off the back of a setback which is a slight red flag for me. Last start effort behind Saloon Bar when caught wide on a hot speed was enormous.
Thorogood is racing so well at the midweeks and the 3rd horse from that last start win was a winner last Sunday (in Saturday grade, due to the postponement of the meeting) in Be Optimistic.
Suggested Bet: Planet Cash to win, pretty keen he can round these up.
Race 4 CROWN PERTH HANDICAP 2200m
Selections: 1 – 4 – 5 – 2
Virtually a re-run of the 1800m 72+ from a fortnight ago, and while others from that event will be much better conditioned and suited out over the longer journey, if Casino Seventeen stays on over the 2200m then this looks a rinse and repeat job here. Pike took a chance with him last start and tried to roll forward with him, got planted leading up the 3 wide train throughout and not only loomed up to the leaders around the bend, once Pike asked for an effort he ripped away from them and was only extending through the line, he’s just a horse thriving in his new environment pretty clearly and thriving with the racing he’s getting under his belt. Does meet most opposition 2-3kgs worse off at the weights here, but victories don’t get much more convincing. Harvey hops on for Pike who is off galivanting in NSW, hard to beat again, just no betting interest for me at the price.
The best way I think his opposition would have of beating him here would be a horse like Bold Success really piling some pace into the race a long way from home and turning it into a real staying test. If that was the case (rarely happens in WA staying races, or any staying races Australia wide anymore) then I would be really interested to see how he would handle it and think it would play into his hands, goes super for Lucy Warwick.
Blazing Away is going well and has only stepped out once in his career over the 2000m for a victory.
Reliable Star is a real stayer and can come on quickly the deeper she gets into her prep.
Suggested Bet: Casino Seventeen on top from Bold Success, but no real interest in the race from me.
Race 5 PKF PERTH HANDICAP HANDICAP 1200m
Selections: 7 – 4 – 1 – 2
I thought Our Wind Spirit was super last Sunday behind River Rubicon in a race that I think will be run very similarly to this one. Run along at a very strong tempo, he sat back with a smother, no weight on his back and quite simply was just edged out at the finish by a very good horse. Similar conditions here with the speed engaged, drawn soft, only carries 53kgs after Child’s claim (6kgs less than Acromantula) and back to 1200m holds no queries for me whatsoever, if anything I actually prefer it for him. Blinkers go on, think this is the race that best suits him in town since he has come across and while he’s hard to catch, I’ll be more than happy to spec him Saturday.
The other horse I could spec is Gunmetal Grey with the way this race looks to be run. 1800-1200m very unfashionable on paper, but going back through her career her runs at 1200m have actually been her best, she’s had a nice little freshen up and Paul Harvey hops aboard in a race that looks to have plenty of tempo where she should be able to build into it in a 3 wide line. Winkers go on, all Ross Price runners really going super at the moment, she absolutely would not surprise.
Acromantula really surprised me how well he went without a great deal of luck either stepping out to 1200m in the Scenic Blast, still had plenty left to offer there late once he got out into clear air and was very unlucky not to have been in the finish. Here he loses Pike for the apprentice, has to carry 59kgs and although from the barrier they can probably kick through to lead, there is an abundance of pressure engaged through the likes of Warm N Fuzzy/Kenyluck and Strathmore Rose. At 1000m, not as concerned, but 1200m, just not sure how I feel about the set-up for him. Different ball-game.
Warm N Fuzzy won a high-pressure 1200m event two back and was just run off his legs on Sunday towing the rest of the field up to Halatorion. Certainly not out of it.
Suggested Bet: Happy to have small bets Our Wind Spirit and Gunmetal Grey.
Race 6 THE ERIN CHALWELL HANDICAP 1600m
Selections: 10 – 4 – 1 – 5
Gage Roads looks the obvious as the 3yo off the strength of his run into 3rd in the Breeders Classic. Was just dictated to with where he settled there by the barrier, we’ve seen him his career able to race as tractably sitting much handier. From the soft draw, can see him taking up a much more forward position in what looks a messy race that lacks any real genuine early speed on paper. Very nice horse on the rise, going to be very popular, just not a betting proposition for me at his current price at sub $3.
Ciscojoe was super in what I thought was the key form reference for this a fortnight ago when hitting the line hard from a long way off them into 2nd behind Arcadia Grace. Gets the winkers on here, drawn for another midfield run with cover and looks suited with the extra 100m, it’s just an unknown with his lack of early speed how far back he gets in what could potentially be a very messy race.
Birdieagle was plunged in the same race in betting and got absolutely no luck at all from the box-seat, been a running trend in WA racing of late very well fancied runners not getting a run from leaders back, think I’ve been on all of them. Do they roll forward with him and try find a position? Certainly capable of bouncing back.
Speedy Miss can position up closer here with some initiative shown early and looks over the odds at $17 dropping back to a grade she was a winner in only two starts ago.
Suggested Bet: Gage Roads on top but no bet race for me.
Race 7 MORLEY GROWERS MARKET - CHALLENGE STAKES 1500m
Selections: 3* – 2 – 1 – 7
Don’t think there has been a horse trial better than what Admiration Express has been dishing up at Lark Hill recently. She has been trialling like an absolute beast and hasn’t looked like she has gotten anywhere close to leaving 1st gear. If we go back to her win in the Champion Fillies, she’s beaten home the only horse to defeat Amelia’s Jewel in Laced Up Heels and while I concede Laced Up Heels did it pretty tough that day, I just absolutely loved the way when Laced Up Heels loomed up alongside her in the straight there, she went into overdrive and found another gear and kicked away again, it was just so impressive and Laced Up Heels is a horse I expect to go very close to taking out a Group race in Melbourne on Saturday as well. I think that’s the best exposed 3yo form we have seen and she seems like she has only gotten better with her time in the paddock off what we have seen at the trials. Can follow Feels Playful across into a prominent position here from the draw and have a feeling she could be a star for Jason Miller.
All The King’s Men is the deserving favourite. Terrific win in the Breeders against the pattern of the day. Will get a terrific gauge on that race as a form reference throughout earlier races on the card, he’s a winner at 1400m, he was a brave 4th over 1600m in a WA Guineas when not a lot went right, 1500m looks right in his wheelhouse and he maps for a cushy run on the back of a horse that will take him a long way into the race.
Saintorio went to the Breeders Classic well and truly underdone, has been primed to perform here today with an eye to a potential Melbourne campaign, can count on SJ having him close to fully wound up here and expecting massive improvement from a horse that won a Lee Steere defeating the favourite at set weights and ran 3rd doing it tough in a WA Guineas.
Feels Playful almost pinched the Breeders Classic but was suited by the pattern of the day there, looks your leader again.
Suggested Bet: Admiration Express to win.
Race 8 CYRIL FLOWER STAKES 1200m
Selections: 8* - 3 – 1 – 4
Another great race the Cyril Flower and a couple of runners at the top of the market I have huge opinions of in My Bella Mae and Sniparoochy.
Although maybe not as convincing as some may have hoped given her quote, My Bella Mae’s win 1st up when a little underdone was just all class. The sections she has come home in, fastest L800/600/400 of the entire meeting and dominant in that space too, were elite and she was always going to derive great benefit off whatever she did there off the back of a genuine 8 week spell she was given post Winterbottom. Drops 4kgs off her back here 2nd up, stalks the speed midfield with cover from a great draw and gets weight off her key rivals (2.5kgs having had the run under her belt off Sniparoochy) as a 3yo filly on the minimum. Melbourne aspirations on the horizon, I expect her to be too strong late for them here and prove too classy on her way to justifying those heights the stable and connections have hopes of her progressing to.
Sniparoochy for me the clear danger. Despite being a Listed winner last campaign, she’s still a little underrated for me. Recent trial incredible, put a very progressive, talented sprinter and dominant subsequent winner Metallon to the sword and can find the top here with her gate speed from barrier 2. Would be incredibly surprised if the winner came from outside those two, pains me to put her in 2nd because I love her as a horse and believe we still yet may not have seen the best of her.
Hot Zed is just a marvel. His runs in the Crawford, Winterbottom and The Gold Rush over the Sprint were just incredible. Just has to spot some very nice horses big starts here from the draw and some considerable weight.
Angelic Miss is a classy mare, has a serious turn of foot and was a terrific win in the Scenic Blast, good to see her back to her best.
Suggested Bet: My Bella Mae to win. (Best Bet)
Race 9 FURPHY HANDICAP 1000m
Selections: 9* - 3 – 2 – 1
They will go like the absolute clappers here to round out the day. There is just so much early speed here it almost has to set-up for something that can camp on them with a turn of foot, finishing over the top and the two most likely for me have to be Senorita Dorotea & Ruthless Tycoon.
Senorita Dorotea was the follow of the race behind Classic Magnus last time we saw her in a race that has already produced Sir Mambo as a subsequent winner and Hammarmill/Magnificent Andy both terrific runs without winning last Sunday. Missed the start, was held up badly until passing the 150m and once she saw clear air she’s burst through and hit the line in some of the best late sections of the entire meeting, was a real “be on me next start” sort of run and she gets a set-up here where she can sit back off a hot tempo and launch over the top of them with no weight on her back after Kesh Dhurun’s claim getting her down to just 53kgs, 3kgs less than what she carried in this grade last start. Not overcomplicating things, $4 a nice price to back her I feel.
Ruthless Tycoon is 1st up off a long, injury lay-off but that recent trial showed he hasn’t lost any of that promise he possessed through his initial campaign. Cruised up to Blow Me Out and put him away in a matter of strides, with Blow Me Out then running very well behind Halatorion 1st up last Sunday and Sunny Honey, a race-fit dual winner this campaign back there in 3rd in that trial as well.It was uber impressive, and while I tend to lean to Senorita Dorotea due to the barrier and perhaps the fact he may need a run under the belt off such a long lay-off to show his best, he is a horse I cannot wait to see what he can do if he can stay fit and healthy over an extended period. Expecting a big performance from him on resumption and suspect the tempo expected here with the speed engaged will help to offset the barrier. Absolutely would not surprise to see him have too much class.
Tadweer has been ever consistent since crossing to WA, deserves to win one soon and looks to get a really nice suck run tagging the speed here.
Olga Louisa gets the Pontiff and always runs her best races in each campaign fresh, the barrier and the speed drawn underneath the fly in the ointment. If she can somehow get across them, she can win.
Suggested Bet: Lean to Senorita Dorotea over Ruthless Tycoon to take out the last for reasons mentioned above.
Race 3 #7 Planet Cash
Race 7 #3 Admiration Express
Race 8 #8 My Bella Mae (Best Bet)
Race 9 #9 Senorita Dorotea