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  • Writer's pictureRylie Morgan

Rylie Morgan's Sunday 5th Feb Ascot Preview

Ascot 5th Feb Preview


Selections: 9 – 4 – 8 – 3

Really good race for the 3yos to kick off the card but a very difficult one at that.

Trespassing gets Pike aboard for the first time and just maps perfectly here up to the 1100m. He is a horse we still haven’t really seen with a bunny yet to chase nor has he found any cover this preparation so far and I think we will see a different horse when we do tomorrow. Fought on well from the breeze and really kicked away again from Mia Gusto through the line. This is a race with really strong speed influences, Pike should land one out, one back with just the 54.5kgs and be afforded all the favours in transit. Been waiting for him to find a back to follow and this looks the race.

Mia Gusto a horse I anticipate to improve significantly ridden colder, up in trip with the speed on. Being ridden closer last start took away her main asset which is her closing turn of foot.

Malkar Pindari is an X factor runner for a dynamite fresh yard. Still a maiden, but she’s a filly with a booming turn of foot and has beaten home some horses that have gone on to do some very impressive things in her 3 starts to date the likes of Linden Lady and Laced Up Heels. Sits back last from the gate but with 3 very fast horses engaged if they do really rip at each other, her finishing over the top of them despite still being a maiden wouldn’t surprise me. Talented horse.

Suggested Bet: Trespassing to win, but a very tricky race to start the day. High quality field.


Selections: 4 – 9 – 6 – 2

Another very tricky affair, a race I am very doubtful to have a bet in.

Silkinize was huge 1st up with the apprentice when very unlucky not to have been in the finish. Thought he was as good a run as The Lady Is A Vamp who he meets again here but gets the services of Paul Harvey for the apprentice. Only query being the month between runs and whether that spacing has been intentional or there has been a minor setback with him.

Here’s Dreaming looks to have the most upside in the field and is still only lightly raced. Comes here 1st up no trial but she looks your map horse and showed a nice turn of foot in her 2 wins last prep, with the form through those efforts now looking more than good enough for a race like this.

The Lady Is A Vamp gets Pat Carbery aboard and looked the winner on the corner last start in a 60+ when finally leaving on terms with them from the machines before taking a noticeable dip at the 50m. Not sure she was winning that race regardless, she likely ends up right back in the field from the gate here but she’s flying and the senior goes on for the first time all campaign.

Born To Talk should lead and was a really strong, grinding win from the breeze last start in this grade at 1200m when heavily supported in betting from double figures to as short as $4. Back to the 1000m a slight query for me, 3 starts ago hammered in betting when leading over this trip and Nobellity was able to sit outside him in the breeze and go past him in the straight. This lead looks somewhat softer on paper, is only penalised 0.5kg for the victory and gets well in to repeat the dose again.

Suggested Bet: Silkinize on top from a tipping perspective, but not a race I’m keen on.


Selections: 2* - 3 – 10 – 9

Be Optimistic trialled up like a bomb prior to her 1st up run in a strong 0MW at Belmont last Thursday. Drew widest there and began too well for her own good, was posted 3 deep throughout and still loomed the winner at the 200m before just peaking on her run late and was more than entitled too. The way she began, from the barrier I think Holly can land one out, one back here on the back of a horse like Flicka’s Chance who is going to take her a long way into the race. Loved what she did last prep, will have derived great condition from that run 1st up and drops 1.5kgs off her back into a race that isn’t a great deal deeper. Very keen on her chances

Flicka’s Chance trialled up as good as Be Optimistic through that same heat and her fresh effort when having to do a bit of work through the middle stages behind Born To Talk was terrific. Better suited at 1400m, improves 1st up to 2nd up generally, likely has to sit outside the leader here with Storm Lord drawn underneath her, which could potentially leave a horse like Be Optimistic on her back in the slip stream, but she absolutely has to be respected off what we’ve seen from her so far this prep.

Bleecker Street probably just didn’t see out the mile last start, drops back to 1400m, maps a treat and gets Pike back aboard. 3yo up against the older horses on the minimum with the best jockey in the state aboard all boxes ticked.

Cerridwyn has put 2 nice wins together for Michael Lane since crossing over to WA but has a tricky barrier to navigate and this is a big step up from what she’s been beating up on. Nice horse.

Suggested Bet: Be Optimistic to win.


Selections: 8 – 1 – 7 – 4

Another race that doesn’t generate a great deal of interest for me as a betting proposition.

Kohli comes through the key form reference for this race the Mungrup Sprint and actually beat home River Rubicon (and won the race) but after a protest was fired in was relegated to 2nd in what was ultimately the right decision in my humble opinion. He’s flying, gets a great jockey change with Clint Johnston Porter hopping aboard and if he can utilise that gate, can potentially hold a map advantage on key danger River Rubicon.

River Rubicon would have beaten home Kohli in that same race but interesting the tactics they employ here from barrier 9 of 9. Best horse in the race and looks the more suited of the pair up to the 1400m, but a map query it must be said. If he is anywhere near his best, even if he does go back to last is probably good enough to pick these up.

Oly’s Choice picks and chooses when he wants to show his best, perhaps he’s just a fresh horse? Didn’t get a lot of luck in the Mungrup Sprint but thought he was still entitled to be a little stronger late, his effort prior to that was terrific in the Fitzpatrick Plate.

Big Bada Boom your map horse for William Pike and Roy Rogers. Think 1400m may be a bit sharp for him.

Suggested Bet: Kohli on top, but another race that doesn’t overly enthuse.


Selections: 1 – 9 – 14 – 4

A Lot Of Good Men posted a huge 2yo figure in winning last start and was only a more meritorious victory coming from off the speed which not many 2yos are capable of. Looks only more suited out to 1100m, only penalised 1kg and maps for a pretty similar run again here from barrier 6. Albeit, he does have a bigger, potentially messier field to combat with but am hard pressed to mount a genuine case for anything having their first race start to be beating him. Marked him very short and the market reflects that.

Guarding Heaven can position much closer from barrier 3 and was an understated good run behind the favourite last start when made to really snag early from the wide gate when trying to get on with things. If she can utilise the gate, she looks the testing material.

Super Smink trialled like an absolute jet, the barrier is a spanner in the works.

Best Of The Gods is the full to Karrakatta Plate winner Ex Sport Man, was a nice trial win and is drawn soft for the debut.

Suggested Bet: A Lot Of Good Men to win.


Selections: 8* – 2 – 10 – 1

Looks a terrific race for Queen Of Jerusalem to continue on her upwards trajectory as a staying prospect since coming under the tutelage of Adam Durrant. Horse that always touted ability even in her early days, she went from a maiden win to a Belmont Oaks and although beaten 3 lengths was one of the runs of that race. Since moving to Adam’s which in any case adds considerable polish, we’ve seen her go to an unsuitable 1400m fresh when beaten under 1L subsequent Breeders Classic placegetter Gage Roads, beating home very impressive subsequent winner Fear The Wind before last start stepped up to the mile, got back worse than midfield in a strong gallop, had nowhere to go until passing the 200m and once Clint got her into the clear she really pinned the ears back and savaged the line in what ended up being a very soft win with the 3rd horse there already stepping out over further and bolting in. A horse who is only going to be effective getting out over more ground which she gets here out to 1800m, if Chris Parnham can keep her within 3-4L approaching the corner, even if he has to wind up from the 600m with her to put her into the race and sustain a run, I think she wins again barring any real bad luck. Really nice progressive, staying type.

Roch Legacy is running out of chances but the Blinkers go on and Pike also goes on, two very big ticks. Blends him into the race 3 deep with cover, back to 1800m a query.

Crystal’s Dream steps out over the 1800m for the 1st time after putting 3 on the bounce.

Maiden winner at Pinjarra, then a pair of 3yo restricted races over 1400 then 1600m.

Packed too much firepower for her oppo there in a couple of small fields, she’s a really nice filly but my lingering concern is just the nature of how those races have been run and whether they are a good platform for this set-up? Got over the top of a 5 horse field box-seating off a very slow tempo, then got all favours leading last start at the mile when taking them for a walk over the mile at 20L, yes 20L, below benchmark to the 1000m. Bigger field, fair bit of tempo engaged that should ensure they run along at a genuine enough gallop, drawn the inside, can she hold up in the box-seat? Will be popular and understandably so as a very progressive filly on the minimum up against the older horses, but this is a very different set up to what she has been beating up on at her past few.

Wise Counsel in for 4th.

Suggested Bet: Queen Of Jerusalem to win.


Selections: 6* - 1 – 5 – 11

Allmamoney I’m convinced is a very good horse. Was always going to be interesting to see how she came back off such a long lay-off but in her initial campaign she showed great promise and she gets a set-up here where Clint can take bad luck out of the equation and put her in a position that will keep her out of trouble. Was a massive drifter in the market fresh with the apprentice on from a wide barrier at Pinjarra, she bungled the start and still packed too much firepower for them to get up on the post before last start, actually began on terms with the vast majority of the field but just got squeezed early, resulting in her being shuffled back a bit further than what they would have hoped. Beaten 3.5L, but she never got a crack at them at any stage and was absolutely bolting all the way to the line behind that wall of horses she got strung up behind. If she gets clear air at the top of the straight, she guns Weaponson down in my opinion. Gets here 3rd up, gets a 2kg swing on Weaponson who will have to do a great deal more work to get across the field here from that wide draw you would think, she’s ready to peak and if CJP can utilise her gate and park her in the first 6 or 7 in running, she’s going to be very hard to hold out.

Weaponson was a very strong, deserving winner last start leading all the way under Pike. Penalised 2kgs for the win and drawn barrier 12/12 this time around, so while he may have to do a bit more work early to get across, if he is able to do so cheaply he’s a great chance of repeating the dose.

Bragwell maps for a great run in the box-seat and to me looks like he is screaming out for the mile at this stage of his campaign.

My Boy Eddy is going very well, just has no early speed and may end up shuffled back in an awkward position in running. Has a great finish on him.

Suggested Bet: Allmamoney to win, one of the better bets of the day.

Race 8 THE ASCOT MILE 1600m

Selections: 5* – 9 – 11 – 3

The Velvet Queen is a horse that recent chatter from the camp and from external sources suggests is capable of being competitive in a Railway Stakes at the back end of this year. With the way this race sets up and off a much more ideal lead in than her last start victory going 1800m back to 1500m, she has to be winning this race to warrant those claims holding any sort of substance to them. Went 1800m-1500m last start, we saw a tactical versatility we didn’t know she had and when Big Screen stole a break on them around the turn and she had balanced up and really started to let down, she was really never getting beaten. Maps for another midfield cover draw, in a race with an even greater abundance of speed engaged with Cockney Crew/Cheval De Vaga/Corn Cob and Bruce Almighty even to provide Big Screen with more company, 1500m-1600m off a much more traditional race to race set up, if she holds her form I think she just picks them up again here. Love how devastating her turn of foot is.

Corn Cob drops considerable weight and gets Pike aboard and should be able to blend across from the gate with all the speed engaged and park just in behind the speed with cover, he’s just a linechaser and an absolute ripper.

Westriver Miracle was a super run in behind The Velvet Queen 1st up at 1500m and was unlucky not to have finished a bit closer.

No Apology a similar story, terrific pipe opener through that same race and can certainly improve back in the yard of the great SJ Miller.

Suggested Bet: The Velvet Queen to win again.


Selections: 2* - 8 – 11 – 5

I don’t think the barrier really matters for Halatorion here. He’s absolutely airbourne and the softness of that win last start when the fence had looked to be off up until that stage of the day was quite incredible. Put away a field of very good sprinters from the top and reeled off the quickest L200m of the race and also the 4th quickest of the entire meeting. Don’t think there is a better horse/hoop combination getting on better than Hala and William Pike in the state at the moment. Comes across from the gate, thought he could lob in the breeze outside He’s Gold but is tactically versatile, if they really kick up underneath Pike can re-assess his options, with a back to follow I think he’s more than happy landing a bit further back than what they would probably like. Gets a bit of weight but drops in grade back to a 66+, the last time we saw him and Pike from barrier 10 in a 66+ he’s posted almost a G1 level, career peak figure. No other horse I would realistically want to be on. Hoping aboard Team Hal.

Blow Me Out really came of age last prep and posted a huge figure 1st up last campaign and has been trialling super for his return here. Can blend in with cover from the gate and with the freshness in his legs, run a very strong race to kick off his campaign in what looks a suitable assignment. That Phanta form through last prep only looks stronger after the weekend just gone.

Hammarmill much better suited here at 1200m from a soft draw, just got too far back over the 1000m from a wide gate last start in lesser grade but reeled off the fastest L200m sectional of the entire meeting, very talented mare.

Ain’t No Other Man struggles to win, but maps for a really soft run and is tactically versatile and the camp is flying.

Suggested Bet: Halatorion to win.

IMAGE: Western Racepix


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