Rylie Morgan's Wednesday Belmont preview - Feb 1st
Race 1 FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP 1200m
Selections: 7 – 2 – 1 – 5
Divine Inanna went up against the favourite here Spirit Man last start and thought she was as good a run. Sat in the breeze there with the winner on her back and was really brave the way she fought through the line to only be beaten under a length. Gets 1kg in her favour here and finally finds a race she can find the fence, lead and kick into the straight. I think conditions will be suiting those on-speed and she will be very hard to run down.
Spirit Man the deserving favourite after getting past Divine Inanna last start after landing in the box-seat. Maps for a similarly good run here and loved his work over the last 100m when breaking his maiden, thought he was pulling away from them late. Marked them equal favourites and wouldn’t surprise to see him win again.
Hear My Prayer was plunged in betting fresh and carries some really strong 3yo form from last prep, just a slight query on the strength of that race as a form reference.
Art Of Consent did it very tough 1st up but fought on very well. Likely lands in the breeze again here but certainly has ability.
Suggested Bet: Divine Inanna to win.
Race 2 TABTOUCH - HAVE YOU GOT THE TOUCH MAIDEN 1000m
Selections: 11 – 4 – 8 – 12
Desert Nymph has got ability in spades, but the penny still hasn’t dropped for her. She still does a lot wrong and we saw that last start over the 1000m down the Pinjarra straight when she bombed the start by 3L, was held up for a run until passing the 100m and flashed home between runners to be beaten only 0.3L at the finish. Carries form through Laced Up Heels (only horse to defeat Amelia’s Jewel) from last prep and barrier 1 could be a blessing or a curse, if she steps cleanly she could hold up leaders back, if she misses away again she could land 4 back the fence with the entire field in front of her and some serious traffic problems. Best horse in the race, but still very green, if she can land leaders back here I think this race is hers to win, but that is one big “if”.
Frantic War has trialled up super for his return and finds a big field with good pace on, lobs midfield with cover and gets a nice set-up to have a crack at them late, good race to return in.
City Angel looks your leader and 1000m horses that lead in 1000m races are hard to knock, very fast operator and despite a few queries around the strength of his form through last prep, he will be in front for a long way and gets a Blinker on near side to straighten him up. Jayce Buckley’s yard ticking along very nicely.
Marmooga is a very talented horse and comes through a terrific form race, was very well supported in betting and the 2nd horse Trespassing has since run 2nd in Saturday 3yo company and the 3rd horse Supersession bolted in last Thursday. My query being, with the speed drawn underneath, from the barrier where on earth does she get to? Blinkers do come off here though, perhaps we might see some different tactics and she is ridden for a bit of cover.
Suggested Bet: Desert Nymph to win, but it could be a horror watch if she doesn’t step. Very good race, the best of the day.
Race 3 QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP 1400m
Selections: 2 – 1 – 5 – 3
Very tricky, wide open CL1.
Justamiddy trialled up very nicely prior to the 1st up effort and thought he got to the line very well over an unsuitable 1200m. Neville Parnham horses do their best racing from the box-seat and that’s where he looks to land here. Big tick up to 1400m and should have derived great benefit from that 1st up run.
Fries With That the main danger. Very disappointing last start but need only go back one start prior and this grade/track/trip was beaten 0.1L Gage Roads (3rd in the Listed Breeders Classic at Pinjarra over the weekend) and beat home subsequent winners Queen Of Jerusalem and Fear The Wind, super form reference. Pike back aboard for the apprentice and has already won aboard him this prep, lands on-speed from the low draw and looks a key winning hope.
O’Lara’s Prince comes here 1st up no trial from a low draw for a yard that arguably produce their horses to run their best races with that exact set-up. William Lewthwaite absolutely low flying.
Reel Themoff was a big winner at Pinjarra last start but likely lands back near last here in a race that looks to be devoid of any genuine speed on-paper.
Suggested Bet: Justamiddy to win and could entertain a saver on Fries With That to square off on the race but the winning chances don’t end there.
Race 4 FURPHY HANDICAP 1400m
Selections: 6* - 5 – 1 – 3
Starchienne was a dominant winner 1st up at Mt Barker to break her maiden. In 5 career starts she’s never missed the money and in a race almost completely devoid of any speed, can just about land in front here by default from barrier 2. Beaten 1L Queen Alina, 0.5L George Gently from last preparation, that’s really strong form for a CL1 and with main danger Ocean Queen likely last in running from her draw, she has the A1 tactical advantage here on a day where I suspect conditions will be favouring those on-speed. Marked her a clear favourite and with Ocean Queen opening up favourite and now sharing that mantle with her, happy to make her the best bet on the program.
Ocean Queen was a super winner from last on the Scarpside at Pinjarra to break her maiden, beating home what looks to be a nice horse in the process. Looks a real classic Natasha/Oaks type of horse for Bob who is going to get better over further. She sticks at 1400m, goes up in grade, carries an extra 3kgs and likely lands last again in a race with next to no speed engaged. Very tricky little set-up but she does look very talented.
Kia Ora Jewel went 1st up no trial over 1400m, drew very wide and had to cover plenty of extra ground. Made a sustained run from a long way out off a very genuine tempo and only peaked on her run late. Drawn soft to sit a lot closer, derives great benefit from that effort here 2nd up and drops 1.5kgs off her back after the claim for Taj Dyson. Ultimately is going to want further than 1400m but this is good placement and can run well.
Snip Of Glory a slight query at running a strong 1400m but is drawn for a soft run and well-placed dropping in grade from a CL3 to a CL1.
Suggested Bet: Starchienne to win (Best Bet)
Race 5 SCHWEPPES HANDICAP 1200m
Selections: 1 – 2 – 9 – 6
Another very open race with plenty of angles to it.
Linden Lady goes on top for me as the class runner of the field. Queries on her will be whether carrying 60kgs at 1200m is too sharp for her, but her run in the Champion Fillies behind Admiration Express and Laced Up Heels was one of the runs of the day and is just panels better than what anything else here has produced on a racetrack. She has the best jockey in the state aboard and she maps for a soft time of it from the gate, her recent trial was really good and even with the weight, think Pike can be picking his way through with her late. Grant and Alana Williams camp absolutely airborne.
War Hymn uncharacteristically missed the start in a Saturday Westspeed Platinum at 1400m last start and given the circumstances in a slowly run race, picked off a couple in the run home and actually performed very well. Back to 1200m suits, enjoys a really nice run from the gate and two starts ago ran 2nd in this grade behind Hammarmill who went into Saturday company and has subsequently performed very well. Still only a CL1 but this is a great chance for her to get back in the winner’s stall.
Sofia’s Symphony was just run off her legs fresh at 1000m. Much better suited here over 1200m and actually drops in grade from 3yo company to a CL3 and sheds 2kgs of weight for doing so, terrific placement. Barrier 1 could be a bit tricky but she’s talented and has a big turn of acceleration when she’s in the zone.
Military Beat is flying and was unlucky not to finish closer behind Hola Marea last start, just where on earth does Kesh get from that barrier?
Suggested Bet: Linden Lady to win.
Race 6 ALL FLAGS SIGNS AND BANNERS HANDICAP 1200m
Selections: 9 – 1 – 4 – 3
Guard The Safe gets a huge hoop change with Paul Harvey going on. Never in the race from a sticky spot last start and 1st up went super in this grade behind Sabino and Magic To Exceed when punching the breeze throughout. Harvey goes on, he’s no star but lands in the box-seat and gets his chance to grind out another win.
Hola Marea attacks the same grade/track/trip as her very impressive 1st up win with only 1.5kgs extra. Was very impressive there when given a peach by Kesh Dhurun and came home in the best L200m sectional of that entire day. Parks midfield or just worse than here with cover and if she can hold her form, more than capable of putting two in a line, just no value for me as a betting proposition at that current price. Sean and Jake Casey another camp flying along at the minute.
Kolchino will want further but thought trialled up beautifully for his return and parks himself right over the speed.
Storm Lord leads and conditions may be suiting those settling in the first four.
Suggested Bet: Hola Marea looks hard to beat but Guard The Safe looks better value at the price and worth a small wager each way.
Race 7 AMELIA PARK HANDICAP 1650m
Selections: 9 – 3 – 5 – 6
Megami a horse I’d probably want $3.30+ for to back given where she will land in running but her last start effort over 1400m at Pinjarra was monstrous. Came home from last in a slowly run race in some ridiculous late splits and finds a race here where there quite simply are no stars. Pike goes aboard, already proven over the mile, gets in as a very talented (although enigmatic) 3yo with just 54.5kgs on her back and expect Pike to be putting her into the race on the corner, watch her rocket home late.
Acermetric was brave in a brutally run mile the last time we saw him in a race that has already produced a winner from it. Leads them here and with the expected conditions, grinds in front for a long way and will give a good sight with the Winkers going on.
Candlelight Supper is flying but is another who regularly finds trouble in her races with her racing pattern, if she can utilise the barrier and get into clear air she is right in the game and laps up the Belmont 1650m (3:2-0-1 at the track and distance)
Eee Pee Cee broke his maiden very impressively posting a figure 4L better than maiden class average but likely has to breeze and this is a huge step-up.
Suggested Bet: Megami to win but I wouldn’t be taking anything too short about her as she is an enigma, a few winning chances to end the day.